About the Numbers - Maryland Employment Projections - Workforce Information & Performance

Sources of projected employment data
National projections are developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Maryland projections are developed in the Office of Workforce Information and Performance within the Maryland Department of Labor.

Projection period
The long term projection period for Maryland is developed on a ten-year basis. National projections are developed on a 2-year schedule and Maryland follows a similar schedule.

Data
All data are based on place of work and represent the numbers of jobs, both full-time and part-time. Projected employment implies filled demand and assumes a labor supply to meet the needs. Job vacancies and surplus supply are not addressed in the numbers. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 5. (Rounding of data to the nearest 5 may affect additivity.)

Employment change
Employment change is important because occupations with large employment that are projected to grow slowly may create more jobs than occupations with small employment that are projected to grow rapidly.

Industry data
Industry data uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

Occupational data
Occupations covered by the projections reflect the Standard Occupational Classification, which is the basis of the Occupational Employment Statistics survey used to gather occupational employment data in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Many occupations are not identified separately in this classification and are included in aggregate categories.
Employment may not be found in all occupations in sufficient numbers to warrant the development of occupational projections or they may not meet publication standards.

Total openings
Total openings is the sum of the positive employment change over the projection period and an estimate of the number of jobs that will arise from the need to replace workers who separate from an occupation for a variety of reasons, including exits and transfers to other occupations over the projection period. Occupations with declining employment will have job openings equal to replacement needs, since openings cannot have a negative value.

Education and training
In 2011, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finalized a new classification system for identifying the education and training requirements of detailed occupations.
The new BLS system provides individual assignments to each occupation for three dimensions: education, work experience in a related occupation, and on-the-job training. The objective of the new system is to present a more complete picture of the education and training needed for entry into a given occupation and to become competent at performing the occupation.

BLS assigns the following categories to each occupation:

• Entry level education-represents the typical education level needed to enter an occupation. There are eight possible assignments for this category. The educational levels are: Doctoral or professional degree, Master's degree, Bachelor's degree, Associate's degree, Postsecondary non-degree award, Some college, no degree, High school diploma or equivalent and Less than high school.
• Work experience in a related occupation-indicates if work experience in a related occupation is commonly considered necessary by employers for entry into the occupation, or is a commonly accepted substitute for formal types of training. Assignments for this category will be more than 5 years, 1-5 years, less than 1 year, or none.
• Typical on-the-job training-indicates the typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments for this category include internship/residency; apprenticeship; long-term, moderate-term, or short-term on-the-job training; or none.

For some occupations, education code may be blank due to publication standards. Also, education codes are for detailed occupations only and not groups of occupations.

Projected Number of Jobs
This total employment estimate is produced using forecasting software that utilizes a variety of mathematical models, including regression analyses, to produce a projected employment estimate.
This process takes into account state relationships to national factors on such data elements as population and personal income statistics.

Average Annual Demand
The demand for workers needed yearly is based on two factors: the number of jobs expected to be available due to growth, and the number of jobs expected to be available due to replacement needs.
Total jobs are the summation of job openings due to growth and job openings due to replacement.
Annualized results are calculated by dividing by 10, the number of years in the projection period. Note: Average Annual Demand is an estimate that results from division. It is not the number of job vacancies in any specific year within the 10-year period.

Jobs Due to Growth
Jobs due to growth are created by industry employment expansion.
The annual average number of jobs expected to be available yearly due to growth is calculated by dividing the projected employment growth by the number of years in the projection period, in this case, 10.
Growth is rarely the main cause of net job openings and creates the majority of jobs expected to be available yearly only in the fastest growing occupations. Negative growth (or declining employment) is shown as zero; negative growth demand will not affect the replacement need.

Jobs Due To Separations (formerly Replacement)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has implemented a new methodology to measure occupational separations for 2016-2026 projections. Why the change?

Because the workforce has evolved since the previous methodology, the Replacements methodology, was developed in the early 1990s. While the Replacements methodology is not inaccurate, the new Separations methodology was created to better account for the changes in the workforce and to help project what will happen within this dynamic new economy.

The purpose of the new Separations methodology and the Replacements methodology remain the same: to provide estimates of workers who leave their occupation and need to be replaced by new workers.

• The Replacements methodology only captured workers who took a once-traditional career path by staying in the same industry or occupation until retirement, and reflected primarily retirement and death as a reason for exiting the workforce.
• But the workforce is constantly evolving, and workers leave an occupation for reasons other than retirement or death, such as changing careers, being promoted to management or completing a retraining program. The Separations methodology accounts for different types of job changes.

“Exits” include workers leaving an occupation through retirement, death, or a total exit from the workforce.

“Transfers” include workers leaving one occupation for another.

Disclaimer - The accuracy of projections is subject to error because of the many unknown factors that will affect the economy over the projection period. While occupational employment projections and related job outlook information can provide valuable inputs to the career decision-making process, they should not be the sole basis of a career choice.

For more information about the Separations methodology, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website.
Standard Occupational Classification System (SOC)
Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP)
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)